WASHINGTON, Sept. 9 (Xinhua) -- "Three profound changes" have taken place in American politics and society over the past 20 years since the 9/11 attacks, a U.S. expert has said.
First, authors and managers of the successful Cold War effort, the moderate Republicans, have been "completely eviscerated" from the U.S. political stage, said Sourabh Gupta, a senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies, told Xinhua in a recent interview.
"There is no constituency of moderate Republicanism anymore in the United States, and their steadying hand will be missed within the Republican Party and by the nation," he said.
The "endless wars" have also "delegitimized the national security hawks, notably the 'neoconservatives,' leaving the Party's floor open to capture by hardline populists and semi-isolationists, like (Donald) Trump," said Gupta.
"Because of the deficiencies of the U.S. electoral college system, this ugly and radicalized strain of Republicanism will not only survive and succeed domestically, but will also color America's engagement with the world," he said.
"America will be more inward-looking, more economically populist -- if not protectionist, and more unwilling to shoulder its share of international responsibilities," he added.
Second, "the faith that America can naturally go from strength-to-strength economically, and that every successive generation of Americans can aspire to a better life has been dealt a cold shower," Gupta noted.
The annual GDP growth rate in the United States averaged 3.9 percent over the last six decades of the 20th century. "During the past two decades, it has struggled to break the 2-percent mark. And this is in spite of the federal government's debt-to-GDP ratio tripling in just 15 years and breaching the problematic 100 percent threshold," he said.
As America ages further, the one-off structural forces that had propelled America's late-20th century 'golden economic age' -- favorable 'baby boomer' demographics, the rise in female labor market participation, the expansion of tertiary education and a huge increase in household debt-- will "move into reverse and worsen America's economic prospects," said Gupta.
"This economic degeneration will test America's willingness to bear its share of the international economic burden. On the other hand, it will undermine the standing and capability of the U.S. military-industrial complex to unleash a new series of 'endless wars,'" he said.
Finally, there has been "a profound shift in social views on the role of capital and free-market philosophies, more broadly, as a means of societal organization and progress," Gupta said.
As globalization, digitalization and supply-side economics have accentuated social divisions and inequality, roughly 14 percent of prime-age men -- many white, working-class and lacking a college degree -- has exited the labor market altogether, the expert said.
"This has had important populist reverberations, polarizing the electorate on racial and cultural lines, and pushing white identity politics to the fore, which in turn softened the path for Trump's ascendancy in the Republican Party," he noted.
And it will have "equally important negative reverberations" on America's international economic openness, both from trade policy and immigration policy perspectives, Gupta said.
"The high-water mark of that openness, one of America's abiding strengths, will slowly move into retreat. But more fundamentally, it has also begun to reshape views about the role of government in society," he said.
"A more activist government that shapes economic opportunities, and perhaps even outcomes, will be embraced as a means to equalize the socio-economic playing field and guide societal progress towards a more progressive path. The trade-off between growth and inclusivity will tip towards the latter," said Gupta. Enditem
